The West often makes two assumptions about China. The first, is the loyalty of the Chinese people to the regime. The second is the overestimation of the shockwave that would hit the world after the fall of the Chinese Communist Party.
Professor Zhang Tianliang said in a commentary published on July 2 that the West has overestimated the CCP on these two criteria, and that this is a major mistake that the West has made for a long time.
He elaborated on these two concepts.
How can you be loyal to the party if your ‘head and knee’ is also betrayed?
“First, the West overestimates the Chinese people’s allegiance to the CCP,” Professor Zhang said.
“Everyone understands that ‘loyalty’ is a virtue; the highest level of devotion that people should have is loyalty to God, followed by loyalty to family members and then to society; you must be loyal to your family members and then it extends to the community.”
Traditional Ancient Chinese teachings all have this, especially Confucianism.
“That is, if you stay at home, you must first fulfil your responsibilities, then extend family morality and ethics to society. In other words, a man cannot be trusted if he betrays his own family.
“In Mainland China, ‘relationship chaos’—extramarital affairs—is a relatively common occurrence. In this condition, you will find that if your closest spouse betrays you, that person can deceive anyone. They cannot be trusted.”
Some claim that the Chinese people ‘adore’ the Communist Party. Professor Zhang says that most Chinese individuals are quite savvy or cunning when it comes to demonstrating party loyalty for their own advantage.
“First, they feel it’s extremely safe to ‘love the Party.’ Second to ‘love the Party’ can allow you to get rewards, and the party can grant you nice things. Actually, they ‘love the Party’ not because it is wonderful, righteous, or it represents universal principles… but because of personal interests, which provide them with some sense of security.”
At some point, it’s time to make a decision if ‘loving the Party’ is no longer safe or threatens personal interests.
“Why does China always say never betray the party these days? Xi Jinping said he would never betray the party, but he knows it very well. This phrase has a very clear meaning; Xi Jinping understands that only a small percentage of people join the Party because they love the Party’s “ideal.” People join the Party for profits.”
“If you join a political Party for the sake of it, you can also be against it for the sake of it. This is a really straightforward premise. As a result, the CCP believes it’s in danger and threatened from all sides.”
Europe and America had the opportunity to ‘finish’ the CCP… 9 years ago
Professor Zhang began by recounting:
“That opportunity was the event when Wang Lijun escaped at night into the U.S. Embassy on Feb. 6, 2012. This incident then repeated continuously from Feb. to March 5, 2012. At that time, the U.S. side was analysing whether to give Wang Lijun political asylum or not.
“They later found that this greatly involved conflicts within the CCP. Because when Wang Lijun ran to the U.S. Embassy at night, it was clear in Mainland China: a group of Bo Xilai, Zhou Yongkangon one side; and a group including Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao on the other; the two groups are fighting for power. Americans at that time saw this point very clearly.
“American researchers speculate that, if they ‘engaged’ in the internal struggle within the CCP, they may receive unintended consequences. That is, if the CCP fights back and forth, it will cause the downfall of the CCP. Because if America gets involved, the American media will disclose a lot of documents, then a lot of details of the infighting will be revealed through the media channels.
“The Obama administration then assumed that if such a situation were to arise, the CCP would indeed collapse. If the CCP collapses, it will definitely create a huge shock to the world economy. The world economy will plunge. If the world economy plunges, the US economy cannot be ‘strong alone’. So I guess the Obama administration at that time assessed: if the CCP collapses, the U.S. stock market will also crash, a drop of 40-50% is possible,” as Zhang analyzed.
“Plus, it was 2012, for Obama, a pivotal moment in the election. If America’s economy collapses, Obama’s re-election will fail. So Obama thought about it again and again and finally gave Wang Lijun to the CCP to handle. I read about this in Hillary Clinton’s memoirs published in 2019.”
The collapse of the CCP will not create a ‘great earthquake’
Professor Zhang then commented:
“Actually, if the CCP collapses, the biggest impact on the world is that the supply chain will be temporarily disrupted. But everyone knows that, after any government is established, they first do business. The world order also changed for a short time. When the Soviet Union broke up, after about a week everything was over. If the supply chain is interrupted for a short time, it will quickly recover.
“So I think the EU—U.S. side should see this point, the world’s supply chain should be resilient. Regarding strategic materials, EU—U.S. should quickly rearrange the supply chain. For example, important strategic materials: China has, Vietnam also has, India also has, so the supply chain should be moved to Vietnam or India. Thus avoiding dependence on one country.
“Either way, I think that the sooner the CCP issue is resolved, the less volatility the world will experience.
“Because the CCP is the tumor of the world, the longer it lasts, the bigger it gets, and it’s very difficult to deal with. From 2012 to 2021 is 9 years, people see, the CCP has become a lot harder to handle now. It has penetrated deeply into economic institutions. So for this CCP tumor, surgical removal is necessary as soon as possible.
“If the CCP collapses, it won’t be too shocking for the world. For the long-term development of the global economy, this is very good news. Because we know why in a capitalist society, the economy is so developed. Because the government controls very little. The less the government controls, the more the people’s talents and creativity are developed. Thus, society will prosper.
The reason why China has been reforming and opening up for decades without a big brand, without intellectual property in important areas… is all due to the CCP. The long-term forced cramming education has limited the Chinese people’s thinking, imagination and creativity. If after the fall of the CCP, I feel that with the intelligence and wisdom of the Chinese people, the country’s economy will quickly prosper and rise, achieving health and balance.”