An expert report detailed by the South China Morning Post indicates that the risk of an armed confrontation between the Chinese regime and Taiwan “is at an all-time high.” To reach that conclusion, researchers analyzed the military strength of the two sides, trade relations, public opinion, political events, support from allies, and speeches by the Chinese regime expressing its clear will to invade the island.

“Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen to the point where the risk of armed conflict is at an all-time high,” the report released Friday, May 21, asserts.

The experts who compiled the data are from the China Cross-Strait Academy, a Hong Kong-based group of scientists founded by Lei Xiying.

Their conclusion was based on an index of the level of risk of armed conflict in the strait, which the researchers estimated at 7.21 by 2021, on a scale of 1 to 10.

They also analyzed the same factors over the past 8 decades to obtain comparative risk indices. They took as a basis the 1950s, when anti-communist nationalist forces had fled the mainland for Taiwan, and to the researchers’ surprise, the index was lower than it is now, standing at 6.7 points.

During the 1970s, it remained close to 6.5 points but fell back to 4.55 in 1978, when Washington established formal diplomatic relations with Beijing.

The risk of conflict was also low in the 1990s, when Mainland China embarked on economic reforms that attracted investment worldwide, including Taiwan.

Since 2000, the index began to rise sharply again when the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party took power in Taiwan, ending 55 years of rule by the Kuomintang, a staunch ally of Beijing.

After a small plateau, from 2015 to the present day, the index marks an exponential growth in terms of the risk of real confrontation. 

In the same vein, the newspaper The Economist published earlier this month a report in which it assures that the Taiwan Strait, where the point of discord between the Chinese regime, Taiwan, and the various intervening world powers is centered, is the “most dangerous place on planet earth.”

Amid increasingly aggressive behavior by the Chinese Communist regime, Taiwanese national security officials re-proposed legislation in late May to ban the use of the CCP’s flag on the island, Breitbart reported.

Taiwanese authorities also changed the design of its passport by removing the designation “Republic of China,” a name imposed on the island by the Chinese Communist regime that de-emphasized Taiwan’s word.

The Communist regime’s encroachments on Taiwan have increased over the past few months. Including the violation of airspace regularly with warplanes with the sole purpose of intimidating the Taiwanese people. 

The Trump administration gave Taiwan assurances of its unconditional protection against the communist regime’s outrages against the island. On repeated occasions, various officials, including Trump himself, have spoken out in Taiwan’s defense, condemning the CCP’s intimidating actions.

Although the United States confirmed that its commitment to Taiwan remains solid, there are doubts about how the new Biden administration would react to a possible war scenario.


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