The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) recently increased military pressure on Taiwan through frequently sending military planes to Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone (ADIZ).

Former Air Force Deputy Commander Zhang Yan-ting analyzed different CCP aircraft and ships, and suspects mainland Chinese forces will take five steps to attack the island.

These steps include missile attacks on essential facilities, rocket bombardment of secondary targets, J-16 seizure of air control, Mi-17 airborne operations, and deploying troops. This poses a significant threat to the Taiwanese army.

A total of 24 CCP military aircraft have reached the ADIZ since the Ministry of National Defense release its September 2020 update. The most frequent aircraft to intrude was the J-16 fighter, which accounts for about 30 percent of all incoming CCP planes. Other aircraft spotted include the Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), ASW-8 model, Transport-8 Electric Warfare, Transport-8 Reconnaissance, and J-10 fighter.

The CCP first deployed the Transport-8 technical reconnaissance aircraft, Mi-17 helicopters, and other helicopters used to deliver nuclear weapons on Oct. 26. Boom-6 bombers, used to drop nuclear weapons, also frequently enter the ADIZ.

Zhang revealed Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ has tactical importance for CCP forces operating in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

However, any military invasion will be met with fierce resistance from Taiwanese, U.S. and Japanese forces. CCP aircraft will face resistance from all three sides.

Zhang believes there is a correlation between the type of aircraft used to disturb Taiwan’s ADIZ and Beijing’s military exercises. The J-16 is a 4.5 generation fighter, and China has about 300 of them. The J-16D electronic warfare model can be compared to the U.S. military’s EA-18G or F/A-18.

Between October 1 and 4 the CCP sent 149 sorties to disturb Taiwan, 100 of which were J-16s.

Zhang analyzed the CCP’s mounts, weapon types, tactics, and electric warfare capabilities. He found the first military battle between the CCP and Taiwan would be “decisive.”

He predicts the CCP will begin launching East Wind 15 missiles against key military facilities, ports, missile bases, radar stations, and airports.

The regime will bomb secondary targets through rocket artillery. It will deploy J-16s to seize air control, air superiority, and both sea and land control.

It will then order Wu Zhi 10s to launch rockets at sea and land targets, Mi-17 to perform airborne operations and seize airports. Finally, troops will be sent to the island for a final sweep.

Zhang also suspects the CCP sent a Transport-8 finger pass aircraft to carry out three dimensional, on-the-road and vertical operations.

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