Recent polls show President Donald Trump is outvoted by his opponent, Democratic candidate, and former Vice President Joe Biden in some respects. However, in a July 19, ABC News/Washington Post poll, 94 % of potential voters said they are excited to support him for re-election, while in Biden’s case, 79 percent said the same about him.
On the economic side, there is no doubt that those polled recognize Trump’s superiority, who maintains his advantage over Biden, with 47 % being in favor of Trump, and 45 percent in support of Biden. Here it is uncertain what Biden’s support are based on given that he has not been in office.
“Trump has also risen in two of its key support groups, +20 points among rural Americans and +12 points among white evangelicals,” the survey report noted.
Of particular note are the paradoxical statistics unfavorable to Trump compared to those of presidential candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, where 63 million citizens elected Trump.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research confirmed, “National polls in 2016 tended to underestimate Trump’s support significantly more than Clinton’s.”
Dr. Loyd Pettegrew, professor emeritus at the University of South Florida, put forth the concept of “social desirability.” It upholds the idea that respondents “will respond to survey questions in ways that may seem more socially desirable, or will not respond at all,” despite their true belief.
From another perspective, mainstream media and academics, unfavorable to Trump, would have led the population to believe that it is not socially desirable (or politically correct) to support him, which would likely be reflected in current survey results.
“In my experience, surveys conducted by media companies are less credible, as they are often guilty of the same biases seen in their news reports,” said Pettegrew.
Pollsters rely on a small sample of the population, made up of people willing to respond to surveys. That is not necessarily a homogeneous sample of the community, let alone the entire population, which could mean high error rates. The results would only serve to give opinions but not to take them for granted.
The voters who indicate their intention to vote for Joe Biden do so more because of the inertia of the failed Trump impeachment, promoted by Democratic legislators, rather than out of enthusiasm to see Biden’s leftist campaign promises become a reality.
The effect of social desirability was an important factor in the 2016 presidential election. All the polls showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton as the winner.
Trump has benefited his nation in many ways over the past three years, realities that could define his re-election on Nov. 3.
Most of his supporters don’t participate in political polls. Even Trump’s pollsters were surprised by his 2016 win.