Six out of 10 Cuban Americans in Miami will vote for President Donald Trump in the Nov. 3 general election, according to a survey released Oct. 2 by Florida International University (FIU).
The poll, conducted between July and August, showed that 59% of Cubans surveyed in Miami, the bastion of Cuban exile in South Florida, will vote for the president. This percentage represents almost double the voting intention from the 2016 elections.
President Trump was by far the most likely choice when asked, in both Spanish and English, if the election for president between Joe Biden and Donald Trump were held today, who he would vote for. Behind was Biden (25%), 10% had not decided, 4% said they would not vote for either of them and 1% did not answer.
On how motivated they are to participate in the upcoming election, an impressive 90% of respondents said they would definitely participate, only 8% probably, 1% probably not, and 1% definitely not.
The Republican Party holds the majority among registered voters at 53%, with the rest divided between 24% Independents and 23% Democrats.
However, support for the conservative party is rising among Cubans who arrived in the United States between 2010 and 2015. Of this segment, 76% said they were affiliated with the GOP.
“Cubans remain a majority Republican ethnic group and like the majority of Republicans throughout the country, they are supportive of President Trump and his administration’s approach to governing,” said Guillermo Grenier, senior researcher for the project and head of FIU’s Department of Sociocultural Studies.
The survey confirmed that the economy and health care remain the two most important national issues for Cuban Americans.
On how they rate President Trump’s handling of the economy, 62% said they strongly agree, 14% more or less agree, 9% oppose a little, and 11% strongly oppose.
The president also gets good marks for his handling of the CCP Virus crisis: 41% said they agree very much, 22% more or less agree, 9% oppose a little, and 25% oppose a lot.
“[President Trump] receives high marks on handling all of the measured key national issues as well as his handling of Cuba policy,” Grenier said, assuring, “he will receive a strong majority of the Cuban American vote on Election Day.”
“Even some Democrats will vote for him. It’s very impressive in Miami-Dade County,” added Grenier, who also chairs the Department of Global Affairs and Socio-Cultural Studies at the Steven J. Green School of Public and International Affairs.
Nearly 1 million Cubans and Cuban Americans live in Miami-Dade County, which includes cities such as Miami, Miami Beach, Doral, and Hialeah.
In 2016, when the same question was asked in a survey conducted over a similar period, 35% of Miami-Dade Cuban Americans supported Trump, versus 31% who favored Clinton.
“It’s a big change in the electorate,” the expert said, referring to the past presidential elections, when Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade but lost Florida.
In addition, the embargo imposed by Washington on Havana has the support of 60% of Cubans.
On President Trump’s handling of U.S. policy toward Cuba, 45% of Cuban Americans agree strongly with the president, 17% relatively agree, 10% oppose a little, and 22% strongly oppose.
The survey findings suggest that there is a “return to traditional hard-line views” on relations between Washington and Havana, pollsters said.
The Cuba Poll is the oldest survey of Cuban Americans in the United States. FIU’s Cuban Research Institute began conducting it in 1991. This year it was conducted between July 7 and Aug. 17 and involved 1,002 Cuban residents over the age of 18 in Miami-Dade County, who were contacted at random by cellphones and landlines. The work has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.