The economy is booming; wages are rising, more jobs than ever, and the forecast is good for more of the same. Polls indicate the longer the process continues, the less interested the public is in impeachment. Republicans feel this could work in their favor.
Republican pollsters Bill McInturff and Glen Bolger agree President Trump is looking good for re-election in 2020.
“Among presidents running for re-election since 1912, 12 of them in the two years running for re-election did not have a recession. All 12 were re-elected,” Public Opinion Strategies’ Bolger said. Based on present-day figures, “You could not ask for a better kickoff for a presidential re-election campaign,” said McInturff, also of Public Opinion Strategies. Bolger and McInturff are both GOP pollsters, reported the Washington Examiner.
Karl Rove, a veteran Republican political consultant, and President George W. Bush’s senior adviser and deputy chief of staff said Donald Trump is not a certainty to win the next election.
“It could come down to a handful of states, and as in 2016, a relatively small number of votes, and could potentially blow wide open,” Rove told the Washington Examiner. “But, I think that depends on who the Democrats nominate, how extreme are they, and how effective is the president at making the case that they are out of the mainstream.”
The Trump campaign is not taking their success in improving the economy lightly, though, concedes Rove. “The best news for him is that his team is not taking it for granted,” Rove said. “They are not resting on the Ray Fair model that says the economy is so good that we are going to win easy. They recognize that these are unusual times, the country is deeply polarized, and the Democrats are energized.”
The president’s State of the Union address will be crucial for his ability to win votes. “His political team has a realistic view. They understand they are in for a real battle. That matters, because the way that you lose as an incumbent is by thinking, ‘I’ve done a good job, and the people are going to reward me.’ Voters do not reward first-term presidents simply for doing a good job,” Rove said.