Former Chinese Navy Command lieutenant colonel Yao Cheng said that The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) army was not powerful enough to invade Taiwan.

In a recent interview with “Vision Times,” Yao said that all of the CCP’s attempts to invade Taiwan are merely a show of strength.

At present, the Chinese military is just aggressively hunting for opportunities. But if the CCP starts the invasion, it would be exceedingly detrimental to their situation for now.

Yao: Four constraints if China attacks Taiwan

First: The potential war between Taiwan and China is with the United States in the middle. Therefore, to invade Taiwan, China must find a way to force U.S. troops out of Taiwan’s waters.

Despite significant advancements in armaments and military equipment, the CCP army’s air, sea, and space fighting systems remain far from a match for the U.S. military’s combat strength for now. Furthermore, if the CCP has no absolute advantage in the Taiwan Strait, it could not employ force against Taiwan if the U.S. military stood in the way.

Second: Currently, Xi Jinping’s position in the party is unstable, and he does not yet have complete control of the military. As a result, Xi cannot fully command the troops.

Xi is yet to be re-elected for a third term. If he goes all-in on Taiwan, he could have to pay a higher price and have no chance of being re-elected. So the CCP is not ready due to a lack of political preparation. Furthermore, there has not been much agreement within the party on fighting Taiwan. Within the CCP, there are still factions opposed to the invasion of Taiwan.

Third: an attack on Taiwan would not be a slight conflict but an enormous one. The Chinese military is now underprepared, making it impossible for the CCP’s navy, air force, and missile force to win if a conflict breaks out.

Fourth: Taiwan is vital to U.S.-China ties. The CCP is currently experiencing a global trend that is very unfavorable. As a result, the United States pursues a policy to contain China’s influence. Moreover, the CCP is under a lot of military pressure, making it difficult to act independently.

The concentration of power to invade Taiwan may encourage revolt in areas around China, such as the Sino-Indian border and Russia in the north. Sovereignty over the South China Sea may also become untenable. The CCP may become even more passive as a result of this change.

China currently consumes 700 million tons of crude oil per year and imports 80% of its energy, 500 million tons of which are transported to the mainland via the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea. Therefore, China’s economy will immediately collapse if it cannot control the South China Sea.

China’s military actively seeks opportunities to attack Taiwan

According to the retired lieutenant colonel, the CCP believes it will be difficult for the U.S. military to restrain the Chinese army if given an additional 3 to 5 years to prepare. Therefore, the optimum time to attack is then.

Now, the United States has seen China’s plot. But, unfortunately, the U.S. did not give China time to prepare. So they are gradually exerting pressure to provoke the CCP, especially on the Taiwan issue. This includes a series of actions, such as calling for Taiwan to be included in the United Nations, all aimed to incite the CCP military.

The Chinese military’s latest string of moves against Taiwan is only a threat. It would have to be a surprise strike, not a show of prestige if it really invaded Taiwan.

If you wanted to make a surprise raid on Taiwan, it would have to be a quick battle. ​Immediately seize Taiwan and make it a done deal. This means that the Chinese military must completely control Taiwan before the US-Japanese coalition, including the Western coalition, can intervene.

If China touches Taiwan, it will get pulled into an Indo-Pacific War

If Xi Jinping authorizes an immediate attack on Taiwan, the CCP’s army will become engulfed in a never-ending battle in the South China Sea. The CCP’s rule will be jeopardized, and its weakness exposed as a result. The CCP army has little chance of victory if it continues to battle in the South China Sea, and it will be forced to end the conflict.

The U.S has sent to Taiwan combat troops and technical and tactical military advisers as well to train defense and self-defense forces for Taiwan. The U.S., with great confidence in Taiwan’s defense capabilities, will sell whatever weapons Taiwan needs. This is another factor that makes the CCP not dare to attack Taiwan. 

In addition, Taiwan is not alone. They have Japan behind. Some of the U.S. military forces are stationed in this island nation.

China will almost certainly suffer a huge loss if it attacks Taiwan

According to Yao Cheng, Taiwan has a strong self-defense capability. With almost 20,000 missiles, Taiwan is known as Hedgehog Island. Taiwan has two policies: one is to assault the head, and the other is to use its self-control as a battle power.

If China wishes to attack Taiwan, it must first destroy its airports and docks, otherwise, landing on the island would be extremely risky. 

The Taiwanese Air Force now has advanced F-16v fighter jets and anti-ship missiles HF-2 and HF-3. Furthermore, the weapons that the U.S. sells to Taiwan are cutting-edge ones. Before conquering Taiwan, China must have this weaponry and equipment crippled. This is a significant issue for China. 

As long as the CCP launches a missile, the Taiwanese military will attack the brain. Chinese military bases and missile bases along the coasts of Fujian and Guangdong will be destroyed. Once Taiwan launches a counterattack, the United States and Japan will follow. It will only take two or three days for the Chinese navy and air force to suffer a fatal hit.

Once the CCP’s navy, air force, and missile forces have been paralyzed, the army will not land because the CCP recognizes that an invasion of Taiwan by force would be highly impossible. As a result, the CCP’s threat to invade Taiwan is merely a ruse. It is helpless.

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