After Russia launched a large-scale war on the territory of Ukraine, after 2014, this republic on the Black Sea coast once again became the focus of world opinion.
Nevertheless, many experts and political commentators are always keeping an eye on the moves of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Most of them share the same view that the CCP is the “fisherman benefited” when it stays out of an increasingly internationalized war, with economic sanctions and embargoes, with the aid of weapons to Ukraine from all continents, with the formation of the International Legion of Territorial Defense from 52 different countries, although the fighting did not leave this land known as Little Russia.
For example, Russian political scientist Dmitri observes that the confrontation with the West has seriously hindered Russia’s energy exports in the West, and this is an unusual opportunity for China in the East. He said that Communist China has begun to actively infiltrate Russia’s energy projects and access to natural resources, so it will soon become the only country to avoid a recession.
Furthermore, China is now the world’s second largest economy after the United States. According to 2020 data from the World Bank, China’s economy is about 10 times larger than Russia’s. Therefore, it is quite understandable that geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert argues that “The China threat is the longer-term strategic threat.” “They’re the ones with the greater technology base. They’re the ones whose economy is right behind the size of America’s.”
Anders Corr, principal at the New York-based political consultancy firm Corr Analytics, warned that the economic power behind the CCP allows this ruler to do things that Russia cannot. “China uses that economic power not only to build its military. China is able to use that economic power for political influence around the world.”
However, what is the greatest benefit that the crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war brings to the Chinese Communist Party at this time? And what is the CCP quietly preparing and what is their next plan? Let’s review some information to find answers to the above questions.
Disappear from the spotlight of international public opinion
According to experts, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is redirecting the world’s attention toward the old Cold War and away from the Chinese regime’s expansionist agenda in the Indo-Pacific.
“The revival of Cold War 1.0 (Moscow–Washington) taking oxygen majorly away from Cold War 2.0 (Beijing–Washington) is a blunder of historical proportions where the democracies are concerned,” said Madhav Nalapat, a strategic analyst and vice chair of the India-based Manipal Advanced Research Group.
Join us in expanding the time span and information diversity, so we can see that no longer being the target of international public opinion is a constant obsession, a core interest of the CCP, so much so that its business partners seem to understand even before the CCP has time to speak up.
First of all, have you ever wondered why suddenly for a long time no one has mentioned a movie star, a soccer star, a sports idol, or perhaps, no one has ever mentioned a famous scientist, although before that, their status lines on social networks or on media channels still attracted thousands of people?
Next, do you know that movie star Richard Gere, soccer star Mesut Ozil, basketball star Enes Kanter Freedom, and French scientist Luc Montagnier – the 2008 Nobel laureate for research on HIV virus all have one thing in common, do you know what that is?
They all talked about the Chinese Communist Party’s crimes or its sensitivities, and almost immediately, they were ostracized and silenced by their own colleagues and partners.
The elegant actor of “Pretty Woman” has almost disappeared from the cinema-loving public since the early 2000s to date, for Richard Gere has long condemned the terrible human rights situation in China. But Mr. Gere’s so-called “big fault” came in 1997 when he starred in the movie “Red Corner,” which tells the story of a US attorney who gets trapped and experiences the grit of the criminal justice system in China. This seems to have taken him off the Hollywood A-list.
In the investigative report titled “The erasure of Metsut Ozil” in the New York Times, two journalists Smith and Pajna emphasized that one year before, he was one of the highest-paid players in the Premier League. But after angering China and refusing to take a pay cut, at the moment the report was published, he simply disappeared, all because of a few tweets by Ozil regarding the persecution of the Uighurs in Xinjiang by China.
As for the case of basketball star Enes Kanter Freedom, Bill Browder, head of the Global Magnitsky Justice campaign, wrote on Twitter on February 13: “Enes Kanter Freedom, the only NBA player brave enough to speak out against China’s human rights atrocities gets traded from the Celtics to the Rockets and then immediately waived (i.e., fired). A disastrous precedent.”
In France, scientist Luc Montaigner, the winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Medicine for his research on HIV, is one of 11 French scientists to have received the Nobel Prize from 2008 to the present, and if considering in medicine alone, he is one of only three French Nobel Prizes since 1980. Recently, following his statement in Pour quoi docteur that he and his research team had found evidence showing that HIV genetic codes were inserted into SARS-CoV-2 and thereby revealing that the origin of this virus was a Chinese laboratory, he was immediately “ostracized by his colleagues.” By these statements, “he expelled himself from the scientific community,” according to AFP tributes quoted by many other French newspapers in memory of Luc Montaigner, shortly after he died at the age of 90.
“Chinese censorship is going global”, just as analyst Suzanne Nossel, CEO of PEN America, named her commentary in Foreign Policy. “In 2020, China expelled the largest number of foreign journalists since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, including many from the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post. That left just several dozen American reporters inside China, a group that has been subject to harassment, visa denials, surveillance, and severe access restrictions. Last year it was revealed that Bloomberg, the parent company of Bloomberg News, went to great lengths to muzzle journalists and their families regarding the company’s efforts to suppress reporting on Chinese government corruption.”
From the above remarks, it can be seen that the CCP’s partners have long understood an unwritten rule that China is extremely allergic to becoming the center of international public opinion.
In particular, the time of the Winter Olympics went in parallel with a global wave of criticism targeting the CCP. The first critiques came from sports fans with the question “Where is Peng Shuai?” after she denounced the sexual assault of China’s former deputy prime minister Zhang Gaoli. They were followed by the French National Assembly passing a resolution recognizing the “genocidal characteristics” of the repression against the Uighurs in China at the end of January 2022.
Right after that, the French National Assembly continued to discuss the accusation of Beijing institutionalizing a huge trading network for organ transplants. Documented by many NGOs, forced organ harvesting targets prisoners sentenced to death and Falun Gong practitioners, according to Le Monde.
The phrase “genocide Olympic” has covered newspapers all over the world. Many people are curious to read about how well-cared for athletes and international reporters inside the so-called “Olympic bubble.” Even billionaire George Soros remarked on January 31, 2022 that “In a few days, China—the world’s most powerful authoritarian state—will begin hosting the Winter Olympics, and, like Germany in 1936, it will attempt to use the spectacle to score a propaganda victory for its system of strict controls.”
In the meantime, the war in Ukraine broke out, taking the CCP out of the spotlight of international opinion. As a result, the CCP spares no effort to do what Suzanne Nossel described in Foreign Policy: “…the CCP sees its continued reign as dependent not only on its long-standing practice of severely restricting speech inside China but also on dictating global narratives about China.”
So what is the CCP planning behind the Russo-Ukrainian war?
How to answer this question, when the CCP is no longer on the focus of international public opinion? In The Analects, Confucius said “Reviewing the old to know the new,” implying that if we want to understand the new, we need to review the old stories.
So let’s go back in history to see what shocking things happen in China every time it disappears from the spotlight of international opinion and what important schemes the CCP is carrying out. Who knows, through that each of us will get our own answer.
1- Vietnam War (1955-1975) and Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
From 1955 to 1975, the focus of the world was on the Vietnam War, and local crises were momentary but no less acute or at least as thrilling as the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States.
In addition, Westerners were always busy with new ideological trends. In the US, a music fair named Woodstock in 1969 gathering more than 400,000 young people is always considered as the birthstone of the Rock music genre. In addition to about 707 cases of drug overdose, to this day, people are still questioning how many “Woodstock babies,” children born from the party of wildness of nearly half a million youngsters.
In France, in May 1968 young radicals took to the streets to overthrow their former idol, General De Gaulle. According to research by Bernard Préel, many of them today occupy important positions in French politics and business. They accused De Gaulle of “bloody crimes” in the Algerian war.
Young hippies in the United States, as well as the youth of the “May 1968” generation in France, were all anti-war. And the most controversial war at that time was the Vietnam War.
By then, the Chinese Communist Party was completely beyond reach of international public opinion. So what did they “silently” do during this time?
They made the Great Leap Forward (1959-1962), the cause of a terrible famine. The article “Great Famine” in the book Historical Records of the People’s Republic of China states: “The number of unnatural deaths and reduced births from 1959 to 1961 is estimated at about 40 million. … China’s depopulation by 40 million is likely to be the world’s greatest famine in this century.” “… people were driven to eat those who died, cannibalize those who fled from other regions, and even kill and eat their own children. The writer Sha Qing depicted this scene in his book An Obscure Land of Bayou…“
After the Great Leap Forward, the innocent and destitute people in China had not had time to compose themselves before Mao Zedong launched the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). According to Facts of the Political Campaigns after the Founding of the People’s Republic of China: “In May 1984, after 31 months of intensive investigation, verification, and recalculation by the Central Committee of the CCP, the figures related to the Cultural Revolution were: Over 4.2 million people were detained and investigated; over 1.73 million people died of unnatural causes; over 135,000 people were labeled as counter-revolutionaries and executed; over 237,000 people were killed; over 7.03 million were disabled in armed attacks; and 71,200 families were destroyed.” Statistics compiled from county annals show that 7.73 million people died of unnatural causes during the Cultural Revolution.
Let’s consider, for example, people have two ears, one ear can only hear the roar of bombs in Vietnam, the other ear is heading to the seductive sounds from electronic guitars or vinyl records newly released by The Beatles. People probably can’t hear even the slightest echo of the cries of tens of millions of Chinese people.
2- Fall of the Berlin Wall (1989)
In a recent comment, French journalist Jean Robin said that the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union that shocked the international community “took place just a few months after the Tiananmen massacre, to divert the world’s attention away from China.” This can not help but startle many people, at least in the coincidence that appeared as random in the schedule of the two events.
The Tiananmen Square Massacre in June 1989 was the first time that the Chinese Communist Party’s army openly massacred civilians to suppress people’s opposition to the embezzlement, corruption, and collusion among government officials and businesses, and their demands for freedoms of the press, freedom of expression and freedom of assembly.
According to Edward Timperlake , between 4000 and 6000 civilians were killed. The US and French governments had sanctions against the CCP. However, the protests that broke out around the world were all of the overseas Chinese. North Korea, Cuba, Czechoslovakia and East Germany opposed these protests.
Just a few months later, as a coincidence of history, the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989. The CCP once again disappeared from the spotlight of international opinion.
3- The September 11 Terrorist Attack (2001)
The year 2001 of the Chinese Communist Party opened with the staging of a self-immolation scene on Tiananmen Square in January 2001. This was the plot of former CCP’s General Secretary Jiang Zemin and his associates in their efforts to persecute the ancient spiritual practice with around 70-100 million practitioners in China – Falun Dafa, also known as Falun Gong. The reason it had to be so painstakingly staged was because Jiang’ plan to destroy Falun Gong “within 3 months” from July 1999 was completely unable to extinguish the cultivators’ faith.
Another reason is that from 1999 to 2001 was also the time when the CCP conducted an unprecedented international lobbying for China to join the WTO. For that very reason, Jiang Zemin tried to put an end to the Falun Gong practitioners’ health and spiritual movement as quickly as possible before the international public noticed. And when progress fell short of expectations, he sought to deceive the world’s media by creating a smear image of Falun Gong.
The Tiananmen Square self-immolation incident, indeed, immediately attracted international media attention. But, ultimately in a way that was completely contrary to the expectations of Jiang Zemin’s clique. On February 4, 2001, Washington Post published a stunning front-page investigative report entitled: “Human Fire Ignites Chinese Mystery – Motive for Public Burning Intensifies Fight Over Falun Gong.” The article provided several facts including that no one ever saw Liu Chunling, the woman who self-immolated in the scene, practiced the Falun Gong exercises; and that Liu would beat her elderly mother and young daughter from time to time, which contradicts with Falun Gong’s principles of Truthfulness, Compassion and Tolerance.
In particular, after a series of articles from January 2001, interviewing witnesses to the Tiananmen self-immolation incident, seven months later, in August 2001, renowned journalist Philip Pan and Washington Post collaborator Pomfret had an elaborate investigation of various forms of physical and mental torture against Falun Gong practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party. In it, practitioner Ouyang was quoted as saying: “In the past two years, I have seen the worst of what man can do.” And of practitioner Hsu: “It was very painful. They forced us to lie. We knew Falun Gong is good, but they forced us to say it was evil.”
Also in August 2001, the International Education Development (IED), an NGO affiliated with the United Nations, publicly stated during the 2001 session of the UN Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights: “The regime points to a supposed self-immolation incident in Tiananmen Square on January 23, 2001 … However, we have obtained a video of that incident that in our view proves that this event was staged by the government.”
Coincidentally, on September 11, 2001, the whole world was shocked to witness the collapse in fire and dust of the World Trade Center Twin Towers in New York. The Chinese Communist Party has once again disappeared from the spotlight of international public opinion.
In December of the same year, the WTO quietly admitted China as a new member. Since then, a series of manufacturing plants and research and development centers from the West have sprung up like mushrooms in China. Globalization is, incidentally, the Chineseization of the world’s production of basic necessities.
To this day, there are still Westerners, such as the mayor of the French city of Avon, who are shocked to realize that “For more than two decades, Falun Gong was unjustly accused by the ruling government at the time. The practice was designated a public enemy, and then at the cost of bullying, ill-treatment and torture on a daily basis, the false reasons for eradicating the movement were made real every day. Each time is more abhorrent than the last.”
“I support your compatriots in China who have been subjected to the most severe abuses and atrocities unbearable by human beings for twenty-two years.”
4- Russo-Ukrainian War (February 24, 2022 to present)
As mentioned at the beginning of this report, China is currently out of the spotlight of international opinion which focuses on Ukraine, where the war that Russia launched in its entirety is taking place. So what is the CCP, in addition to refusing to participate in sanctions against Russia to protest the war and signing multi-billion dollar commercial contracts with Russia, doing quietly?
According to a recent observation by experts, China is accumulating more and more raw materials, such as oil, gas, iron ore, wheat, barley, corn and gold. China, which accounts for about 18% of the world’s population, has stockpiled more than half of the world’s grain, driving up prices to the point of plunging many countries into starvation, according to Nikkei.
This contrasts with the food shortage situation of many countries around the world, especially in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine combined account for about 80% of global sunflower oil exports, 29% of world wheat exports, and 19% of global corn supplies. Wheat and maize shortages will be particularly problematic as these are staple foods in many countries.
This is also in stark contrast to the situation of the people of China itself, for example in cities that are under extreme isolation like Shenzhen. “On the evening of Feb. 28, a neighbor tried to jump off the building from his apartment. Other neighbors told me that he has depression and hadn’t eaten for two days. He lost all hope and tried to commit suicide,” said Lin Dai (pseudonym), a resident of Shangshadong village in the city of Shenzhen.
Ross Kennedy, founder of Fortis Analysis, discovered a highly unusual shift in the CCP’s merchandise trade strategy toward Russia three months before the war in Ukraine. Around November or December, China began to buy all cargo of Russian origin – grain, crude oil and petrochemicals – FOB (Free on Board). In other words, China can now claim the goods as soon as they are loaded onto the ships, he said, adding that this is an unusual choice in international trade.
Unusual, but this change in terms of trade from three months ago is helping China continue to import essentials from Russia despite the embargo against the country by the rest of the world, still according to Ross Kennedy.
All these to prepare for what plan? Time will tell us the answer; but whatever the plan is, the lesson history leaves behind always seems to remind the world to never let their guard down against the Chinese Communist Party. Edward Timperlake, Red Dragon Rising, Regnery Publishing, 1999