The renowned political scientist Helmut Norpoth calculated the probabilities of President Donald Trump getting re-elected, applying a method that is 89 percent correct, and the result indicates that 91 percent of the time he was favored.
The Primary Model has been successful 25 of the 27 times it was applied, including President Trump’s victory in 2016. This time it awards President Trump 362 electoral votes and leaves Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, 176, according to the Daily Caller on Oct. 29.
The acclaimed Primary Model, created by Norpoth, is a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data dating back more than a century.
Norpoth applied to the method the results obtained by Biden in the primary elections held in New Hampshire, where he came in 5th place.
“Joe Biden did terribly well in New Hampshire, the first primary, which is not only the first but probably the most decisive of all the primaries in the entire cycle,” Norpoth said.
Norpoth explains how he applied his system and what were the applied elements that generated the final result that allows him to forecast Trump’s re-election, in the following video.
He also found that the historic 2016 poll results did not favor Biden in key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Another variable he used in his model were survey results, which in 2016 did not leave Trump in a good position.
“On average, they all had Trump down by, I don’t know, at least something like four points or more. If I see Trump down, let’s say a lot against Biden in this election, I’m not too worried,” Norpoth predicted, as quoted by the Daily Caller.
Norpoth is a political scientist at Stony Brook University in New York state and one of the few who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016.
He explained the most important element of his method by saying, “It’s about primaries, which are real contests and the votes are counted and tabulated,” Stony Brook University reported.
“I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum swings away or toward the White House party. This is something that is also based on actual election results and not on any kind of opinion poll,” Norpoth said of his accurate election prediction system.