A political scientist who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s presidential win in 2016 eight months before it happened, has a new prediction for the president in the upcoming election. And Democrats are not going to like it.
Recent polls have Democratic presumptive presidential candidate Joe Biden ahead of the president.
However, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is predicting President Trump has a “91 percent” chance of a win in November.
According to Mediaite on Wednesday, July 8, the professor correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996 with his Primary Model.
For the past 108 years, the model has been correct in every election barring two. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912 when primaries were introduced.”
According to Mediaite, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
Polls are not the most reliable prediction for the elections, said Norpoth, instead, the presidential primaries are the leading indicator, reported Fox News.
Biden had a spectacular comeback in the South Carolin primary, but he was placed fourth in Iowa with only 15.8 percent of the vote and was relegated to fifth place in New Hampshire with a paltry 8.4 percent of the vote there.
President Trump’s position is far more robust than Biden’s, owing to the devastating defeats Biden had in the first two primary races, said Norpoth. “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”
Norpoth attributes the success of his model to the amount of enthusiasm candidates can generate during the first stages of the nomination process, and taking no notice of public opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.
While the Primary Model hands Trump his re-election, national polls suggest Biden will win easily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former vice president besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump.
Norpoth’s model indicates the president can expect to win by an even bigger margin in the electoral college, with 362 votes compared to the 304 votes he acquired against Hilary Clinton.
Such a resounding win, as Mediaite concludes, would be close to the success by Barack Obama in 2008, where he earned 365 electoral votes.
Hardly something to induce enthusiasm in the Democrats den.