For the head of the Trafalgar Group, which specializes in polls, Robert Cahaly, President Donald Trump will be re-elected as he already foresaw in 2016 his first election, thanks to the hidden vote.
Cahaly questions the accuracy of the polls published by the major media, in some of which it is the Democratic candidate for president, Joe Biden, who leads them, ignoring the power of the large number of voters who do not reveal their intentions.
““A lot of people aren’t gonna tell a stranger on the phone who they’re going to vote for, especially if they’re afraid that information might wind up on a website or a Facebook page for everybody to see,” Cahaly said, according to The Wall Street Journal on Oct. 29.
Joined @FoxNews @seanhannity tonight to give a glimpse into why our @trafalgar_group polls are showing a tightening race. You can watch the full segment here: https://t.co/sKJEGJZ2g0 pic.twitter.com/gMxFKQ9tE3
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020
Applying a more technical concept, Cahaly refers to what social scientists call “social desirability bias.”
This refers to the fact that if the environment in which surveys are conducted spreads the version that Trump doesn’t do things right, his followers are unlikely to say they are voting for him.
Although Cahaly admitted that people surveyed “lie,” they is not doing anything wrong, and he illustrated this with an example.
When a grandmother introduces her grandson and says, “Isn’t he a handsome boy,” the respondent will most likely say that he is, even if he isn’t at all.
Trafalgar accurately calculated President Trump’s election in 2016, calling the key states, and now considers President Trump to be in an even stronger position than at that time.
Cahaly doesn’t show any particular political leanings: “For me it’s not a left-right thing,” he said.
“I run a business. It’s not in my interest to pump up a Republican candidate just for the sake of it. I need to get it right,” he stressed, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Renowned political scientist Helmut Norpoth applied the Primary Model, which he created.
This is a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data dating back more than a century, with which Norpoth obtained similar results.
President Trump will be re-elected with 362 electoral votes while the Democratic candidate for president, Joe Biden, would get only 176, according to Norpoth’s calculations as reported by the Daily Caller on Oct. 29.
The Primary Model has been successful 25 times out of 27, including President Trump’s 2016 victory.
It should be remembered that a similar situation arose in 2016. Most polls showed candidate Hillary Clinton leading the polls, however, the chosen one was Donald Trump, as predicted by Cahaly and Norpoth.