According to the results of the Gallup poll conducted between Sept. 14 and 28, 56 percent of voters say they are better off now than four years ago when former Democratic President Barack Obama’s term was ending.
While a clear majority, 56 percent, claimed to be better off now than four years ago, only 32 percent said they were worse off. Only 45% of those polled said their situation had improved after former President Obama’s first term. News Week reports on the Gallup poll.
The number compares favorably with previous presidents seeking re-election. In 2012, when President Barack Obama was coming to the end of his first term, 45 percent of voters said they were better off than four years earlier.
In October 2004, when President George W. Bush was seeking re-election, 47 percent of registered voters said they were better off than in 2000.
The result is seen as a very good sign for President Trump’s chances of re-election, and a finding that the president himself described on his Twitter account as “impressive”: “The Gallup Poll has just come out with the incredible finding that 56% of you say that you are better off today, during a pandemic, than you were four years ago (OBiden). Highest number on record! Pretty amazing!”
The Gallup Poll has just come out with the incredible finding that 56% of you say that you are better off today, during a pandemic, than you were four years ago (OBiden). Highest number on record! Pretty amazing!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2020
If we consider that the pandemic caused by the CCP virus has wreaked havoc on the world economy and logically on the United States as well, then the survey results are doubly encouraging for the Trump administration because it implies that efforts to lessen the impact of the pandemic on the economy were positive and most people feel even better than they did four years ago.
On a counterfactual analysis, one would assume that in the absence of the pandemic the survey result would be truly overwhelming in President Trump’s favor.
The Gallup poll was conducted on a base of 900 registered voters, and the data collection period was Sept. 14 to Sept.28. According to News Week, the margin of error is about four percentage points.
While the voter intention polls have been even, with a small lead over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, renowned political scientist Helmut Norpoth guarantees a broad election victory for incumbent President Trump. He predicts a 91% probability that Trump will be re-elected.
Norpoth bases his claim on what he calls the Primary Model, a statistical representation of U.S. presidential elections based on data dating back more than a century. As such, this forecast is unconditional and therefore not subject to periodic updates.
The model was correct in 25 of the 27 past elections. Even in the last election when the vast majority of polls announced a resounding defeat for Trump, Norpoth did not hesitate to be one of the few to predict a Republican victory.
His model qualifies incumbent presidents, the state of the economy, voter analysis, past re-election statistics, and alternation in power.