Three different models used to measure presidential contests are predicting the president will win in 2020. The models have only missed one presidential election since 1980, and results indicate the president will far surpass his 2016 achievements in the Electoral College, where he won by a 304-227 margin.
The models all showed President Trump with 289, 332, or 351 votes in the Electoral College over his eventual opponent. The number needed for the win is 270.
Projections are based on calculations of the financial situation of consumers, stock market gains under the president, and unemployment status.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper, told CNBC. “It’s about turnout.”
The president’s best turnout comes under the “pocketbook” measure; it is a prediction based on how people feel about their finances.
“Our ‘pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
The chance of the president winning the next election has increased with the recent Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) fundraising figures for the third quarter. They raised $125.7 million in the third quarter with more than $156 million in cash on hand, smashing previous fundraising amounts and setting a new record.
The Moody results are likely to be music to the president’s ears, as he deals with the impeachment proceedings against him.
The president tweeted last week,
“Impeached for what, having created the greatest Economy in the history of our Country, building our strongest ever Military, Cutting Taxes too much?”
Impeached for what, having created the greatest Economy in the history of our Country, building our strongest ever Military, Cutting Taxes too much? https://t.co/LWxfEcRmj4
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 10, 2019