Some U.S. officials recently revealed that senior Russian military generals had a dialogue about when and how Moscow would use nuclear weapons tactics against Ukraine, raising concerns of the United States and its Western allies. The Russia-Ukraine war has also affected the Taiwan topic, as prominent Russian opposition leader Kasparov recently said that if Xi does not want any conflicts with Taiwan, he may have a “Putin for Taiwan” deal. But the U.S. cannot accept it.
The New York Times reported on November 2 that intelligence about the high-level Russian dialogue spread within the U.S. government around mid-October. The exchange occurred during Russia’s increasing nuclear rhetoric and defeats on the battlefield without Putin’s involvement. Nevertheless, it shocked the U.S. because it showed the frustration of Russian generals with their defeat, and the news also hinted that Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons might not be words only.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby declined to comment but stressed that “we have not seen any indication that Russia is preparing for this.” However, he also said that comments about Russia’s possible use of nuclear weapons are incredibly worrying. The U.S. takes this matter seriously and will continue monitoring it closely.
The Russia-Ukraine war has made the West pay more attention to the situation in Taiwan. Can the CCP, which has evaded all economic and trade sanctions to support Russia secretly, survive?
In a recent interview with Ukrainian TV station Obozrevatel, Garry Kasparov, a prominent Russian opposition leader, and world chess super grandmaster, said that Ukraine will eventually win.
Kasparov said that by the end of spring next year, this war of aggression would end with the victory of the Ukrainian army. It will also completely change the political landscape in Russia, even changing the whole world situation. He predicts that Russia will start with the regulatory system and end with economic problems. Russia’s future can go in two directions: firstly, Russia will become a part of Europe and lose part of its territory, or secondly, after Russia’s defeat, it can become the CCP’s backyard and also lose a portion of its land.
He said Putin’s regime would inevitably fail, but such an outcome would largely depend on the attitudes of Western countries. It also explains why the U.S. is slow to supply weapons to Ukraine.
If Russia collapses, what will happen to the CCP? Kasparov said Xi congratulated Tajik President Emomali Rahmon’s 70th birthday this year but did not congratulate Putin on his birthday. It was an unmistakable signal from Xi Jinping to Putin. And more recently, Xi said China is willing to negotiate with the U.S. on important issues such as Taiwan and Russia.
Kasparov believes that Xi Jinping has won absolute power at the 20th National Congress of the CCP, and it is clear that Xi Jinping will not give up this power. The basis of this strength is the so-called “Taiwan unification” line. He emphasized that the CCP cannot take over Taiwan without conflict with the U.S., so Xi Jinping can propose a deal to Biden: if “the CCP does not support Putin, the U.S. must hand over Taiwan.”
Kasparov added that Xi Jinping knew very well that Putin would indeed lose, so handing Putin in exchange for Taiwan is a good deal for the CCP because Taiwan is what the CCP cares about.
However, he believes Biden is unlikely to accept the deal. Because Taiwan is involved in geopolitical and economic issues, Taiwan is the largest semiconductor producer in the world, and American industry today depends on Taiwan. If this economic booty falls into the hands of the CCP, it will become stronger. Moreover, with the fall of Russia, the CCP would have the opportunity to capture the regions of East Siberia and the Far East of Russia. At the same time, the United States is not ready to deal with this situation.