According to local authorities’ announcements and the data from the “Statistical Yearbook of China.” The data shows that 16 of 31 provinces and cities directly under Beijing’s control have a population at the end of 2021 that’s less than at the end of 2020. In addition, eleven provinces have birth rates lower than death rates in 2021.
According to official figures, China’s total population will reach about 1 billion 412 million 600 thousand people by the end of 2021, just 480,000 more people than the population at the end of 2020. There were 10.62 million births, 1.4 million less than in 2020, and 10.14 million deaths, 160,000 more than in 2020. The natural population growth rate (birth rate minus death rate) is 0.34%.
China’s net population growth (births minus deaths) has been downward in recent years. For example, from 2016 to 2021, the net population growth in China was 9.06 million, 7.79 million, 5.3 million, 4.67 million, 2.04 million, and 480 thousand, a sharp decrease of 95%.
Currently, 27 provinces and 4 cities directly under China have released population data by the end of 2021.
According to the Chinese Communist Party’s official statistics, by the end of 2021, the population of 14 provinces and 2 centrally-run cities in China has decreased compared to the end of 2020, of which Henan province and three northeast provinces have the highest percentage of population decline.
Among China’s 27 provinces, the most significant decrease in population is in Henan province, the fourth most populous province in China, with a decline of 580,000 people compared to the end of 2020; followed by Heilongjiang province, down 460,000 people; Other provinces with larger population declines include Yunnan Province (-320,000), Liaoning Province (-260,000), Jilin Province (-240,000), Hunan Province (-230,000), Hebei Province (-160,000), Gansu Province (-110,000) and Shanxi Province (-100,000).
In addition, at the end of 2021, Tibet had no increase in population. As for Qinghai, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi provinces, the total population has only increased or decreased by 10,000 to 20,000 people compared to the end of 2020. The change is very small.
By the end of 2021, China has 13 provinces with an increase in population, of which Hubei province increases the most with 850,000 people, followed by Zhejiang province with 720,000 people and Guangdong province with 600,000 people.
Three of China’s four autonomous cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) have barely changed in population.
In addition, currently 28 Chinese provinces (cities directly under the Central Government) have published data such as birth and death rates, of which 11 provinces and cities have fewer births than deaths. (Note: Tianjin province, Anhui province and Hainan province have not released related data).
Among the four centrally-run cities, both Shanghai and Chongqing have fewer births than deaths. Shanghai has 23,000 fewer births than deaths, with a natural population growth rate of -0.92%; Chongqing’s natural population growth rate is -1.55%. In Beijing, the number of births is slightly higher than the number of deaths in 2021, and the natural population growth rate (birth rate minus death rate) is 0.96%.
Among the provinces in China, three northeastern provinces have markedly negative population growth rates, ranking in the top three with natural population growth rates of -5.11% respectively in Heilongjiang province, -4.18% in Liaoning province, and -3.38% in Jilin province.
Guangdong province, which ranked first in China in terms of GDP in 2021, had a total population of 127 million by the end of 2021 and 1.18 million births that year, ranking first in China. In addition, the natural population growth rate of Guangdong province in 2021 ranks fourth in China, at 4.52%.
As a major economic province in China, Guangdong province has long benefited from net population inflows. Data from the seventh census shows that in the 10 years from 2011 to 2020, the population of Guangdong province increased from 107 million to 126 million—a total of 18.68 million.