Chinese military planes of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have repeatedly flown into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Taiwan News cited Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reporting that Chinese military planes intruded Taiwan’s identification zone 961 times in 2021. Also, in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Taiwan now raises concerns over whether the PLA would invade this island by force.

According to Taiwan’s media news outlet Liberty Times Net, Sun Bingzhong, former deputy director of the Intelligence Research Center of Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, delivered a speech on Taiwan’s military affairs on April 27.

It is worth noting that China has proposed a 1.45 trillion yuan ($230 billion) defense budget for 2022. It is 17 times Taiwan’s defense spending for the year.

Sun Bingzhong also said in the past, China mainly launched surprise attacks to catch the other side off guard; however, before that, China would issue stern warnings, such as through the People’s Daily, Xinhuanet, and the People’s Liberation Army Daily.

Sun pointed out that if China wants to take over Taiwan by force, its military is capable of launching a sudden attack without warning or with minimal warning time. As a result, while Taiwan’s army is unprepared, it can easily paralyze the island, and it then would be able to seize essential facilities such as ports and airports.

He also quoted former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, saying that the balance of power between the U.S. and the mainland and the U.S. willingness to intervene in the Taiwan Strait determines Taiwan’s future.

He predicted that the U.S. stance would change as the mainland and the U.S. became closer. That’s fine if the U.S. can assist in Taiwan’s defense. However, if the U.S. cannot assist in defense of Taiwan but manages to persuade the Taiwanese that it can, it is cruel.

Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng just said on April 20, that China would change its invasion strategy after it has observed the challenges that Moscow is facing in the Russia-Ukraine war.

According to Newsweek, many military strategists agree that China has planned a swift and decisive victory should it decide to invade Taiwan. However, Russia’s lack of progress in Ukraine and the country’s strong resistance has given China second thoughts on this.

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