According to Nikkei Asia, the Chinese communist regime does not have a clear roadmap for peaceful reunification with Taiwan.
The news outlet cited a survey from 64 leading analysts by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), saying that Beijing does not have a concrete plan and actions to achieve peaceful unification with the island.
The survey asked experts whether China has “a coherent internal strategy and road map, with concrete stages and actionable next steps, to achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan.”
Eighty percent of the experts answered “no.”
CSIS attributed the result to two crucial reasons. The first is “China’s inability to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwan government and people.” The other is the collapse of the “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong. Beijing failed to deliver on its pledge when the island was handed over from the UK in 1997.
The survey also found that most experts agreed that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is willing to wait for unification but not forever.
Elbridge Colby, a former Deputy Assistant of U.S. Secretary of Defense, told Nikkei Asia that “Beijing will be willing to permanently accept the status quo if the alternative is humiliating failure.”
The poll showed experts have different views on the CCP’s timeline for unification, anytime between 2027, 2049, and 2072. However, the majority of the respondents—44%, said the deadline is 2049—when the regime marks its century of ruling China.
Only 3% of the respondents said Beijing would seek unification with the island in the next five years.
Recently, many U.S. politicians have shown their vocal support for Taiwan after Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile trip in August.
In late September, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said the U.S. continued “to oppose any unilateral change to the status quo” between Taiwan and China.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo even said that Taiwan is already an independent nation, so it “does not need to declare its independence.”