U.S.-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts that China may lose 0.07% of its current population to COVID-19.
COVID is raging wild across the country after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) abandoned hardline measures in a heartbeat after being challenged by protests.
According to Reuters, IHME Director Christopher Murray expects the outbreak to climax on April 1, 2023. By that time, one-third of the Chinese population will have contracted the virus, and the death toll will amount to 322,000.
Throughout the year, 1 million of its 1.41 billion population may succumb to the virus.
The projection came from analyzing provincial data and Hong Kong’s most recent outbreak. Murray said this is because the mainland has rarely reported any deaths since the Wuhan flare-up.
Experts pointed out factors that make the Chinese community more vulnerable to COVID. They include ineffective vaccinations and the low vaccination rates among people 80 and older, who are most at risk for serious illness.
Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Reuters that China has 164 million people with diabetes, which exposes them to more significant risk. Additionally, eight million adults aged 80 and older have never received a vaccination.
Huang noted that China is urging residents to get booster jabs from homegrown vaccinations and yet opening up to foreign options.
The country’s National Health Commission has stopped reporting deaths from coronavirus since December 4. However, there are signs that the death toll from COVID-19 is already piling up.
The Financial Times reported from the staff at one Beijing crematorium that on December 14, they incinerated at least 30 COVID victims.
One Beijing Dongjiao Funeral Home worker said, “We cremated 150 bodies [on Wednesday], many times more than a typical day last winter. Thirty or 40 had COVID. We are doing it as quickly as possible [and] prioritizing COVID deaths.”