According to SCMP, Director of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) William Burns said on Saturday that China’s leaders have to reconsider “the costs and consequences” if it wants to invade Taiwan.

Burns said, “I think the Chinese leadership is looking very carefully at all this, at the costs and consequences of any effort to use force to gain control over Taiwan.”

At a Financial Times event in Washington, the CIA director said China pays close attention to the Russia-Ukraine war. From the sanctions from the U.S. and its European allies, Russian economic costs suffering, to the fierce resistance from Ukraine. These are elements that forces China to change its approach toward the Taiwan issue.

However, Burns remarked that this would not change Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ultimate goals for Taiwan.

He said: “I don’t for a minute think that this has eroded Xi’s determination over time to gain control over Taiwan. But I think it’s something that’s affecting their calculation about how and when they go about doing that.”

Since the beginning of the war, China has not criticized Russia’s actions. It condemned the West over their sanctions on Moscow instead. While many Western firms exit Russa in response to its invasion of Ukraine, multiple Chinese companies still keep business operations in the country.

Representative Mark Green also expressed the same opinion. He said that Russia’s failure in Ukraine forced China to reconsider the Taiwan invasion. “Certainly [China] is watching the West come together and put sanctions on Russia that are having an impact.”

According to a recent article from the Japan Times, China might consider pursuing a peaceful unification policy toward Taiwan instead of a military attack, which might lead to what Russia is encountering.

A poll from the Foreign Policy also shows that 70% of experts think China will not use the military to attack Taiwan in the next year.

In March 2021, Admiral. Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, during a hearing with the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that China might invade Taiwan in “the next six years.”

Later in June 2021, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley told Congress that China wanted to modernize its military capabilities to seize Taiwan by 2027.

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