With increasingly turbulent events taking place in China, the world’s most populous country, it is understandable that many people are wondering about their situation and their future.

Concern about China’s future is growing as uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming 20th National Congress of the CCP, to be held starting October 16, only heightens expectations.

Especially, in view of the possibility that all of Xi Jinping’s preparations to remain in power may be frustrated.

Worse still, the internal upheaval of the CCP and the increase of social unrest could determine the total collapse of the Chinese regime in its current form.

Well, in view of the possible results, the renowned international analyst of Chinese origin, Jennifer Zeng, resident abroad, is quite clear that even if the CCP falls, China will maintain its stability as a nation.

In a recent interview with Near East Center for Strategic Engagement (NECSE) founder Sargis Sangari, Zeng said, “Will China fall into chaos if the CCP collapses? My quick and loud answer is: No, definitely not.” 

Why China will overcome the eventual fall of the CCP

In her analysis, Zeng includes Asian countries, given the strong effect the CCP radiates across the rest of the continent. We should also bear in mind that the great Chinese nation differs substantially from the CCP’s political system. The CCP dominates it but does not actually represent the nation or its people

Continuing her explanation, Zeng, stated, “Frankly speaking, I was a little surprised by his question.” She went on, “China will fall into chaos without the CCP’ is a very well-known narrative crafted by the CCP to brainwash and terrify Chinese people who don’t have access to free information.”

The first of her arguments holds that the CCP is the only source of chaos for the country, and that, in fact, it has about 11.2 million in its the security force, including the military and police.

She said, “So, if the CCP collapses, no one will control these soldiers and police forces anymore.

Therefore, they won’t be able to do grave damage; nor do they have any reason to pick up weapons to fight among themselves, or crack down on people,” Zeng emphasized. 

She also reinforced her argument by recalling what she believes has been the most chaotic time for China during the 73 years of CCP rule: the Great Cultural Revolution.  

During that period, Zeng said, “All normal social order and legal systems were smashed, people fighting among themselves, and everybody claimed that he or she was defending “our great leader Chairman Mao.”

She added, “But who started the 10 years of chaos—of people killing one another in China? It was exactly the ‘CCP’s ‘great leader Chairman Mao.’”

In addition, she cites three other eras during which tens of millions of innocent Chinese also died: The Great Chinese Famine, the one-child policy, and forced organ harvesting

No less bloodthirsty was the pro-democracy journey undertaken by the Chinese, which was ferociously crushed by the Chinese regime with the Tiananmen Square massacre, also cited by Zeng. 

To take into account just another reference about part of the horror and sufferings that all the ethnic groups that make up the multicultural Chinese population have endured and continue to endure, it is enough to mention a tweet published by VOA media, on October 7, “As Xi’s 20th Congress approaches, it is worth visiting the concise exhibit at the Museum of the Victims of Communism in Washington, D.C., in which Mao Zedong has been called a mass murderer.” 

It adds, “Communism may be the most vicious ideology in human history, causing as many as 100 million deaths. Today, the CCP has become the only major spokesman, ruling 1.4 billion of the 1.5 billion people under the communist system in the world today.”

The only obstacle to the self-determination of Chinese citizens

Despite the difficulties facing countries around the world, some of the deep aspirations that identify them are being free and to exercise the right to self-determination of their future and that of their descendants.

Although to varying degrees, the vast majority has the opportunity to exercise this right. For a few, however, these rights have been taken away by authoritarian and repressive communist regimes, such as the one in China. 

The Chinese are no exception. While many may have succumbed mentally to the effect of the Chinese regime’s cleverly concocted propaganda, this is not the case for the vast majority.  

However, only those living abroad have the luxury of demanding their rights, with an acceptable level of personal protection. However, this security is not guaranteed for their family members still living in China.

It is because of the enormous pressure exerted by the Chinese population’s yearning for freedom and democracy that the expected results of the 20th National Congress of the CCP take on even greater significance.

During the Congress, the leader, Xi, will most likely continue to exercise power over the CCP and, consequently, over the country.

However, one cannot ignore the immense pressure that will be exerted by Xi’s opponents, who have also suffered from his persecution and, in turn, have ambitions to replace him. 

A reflection of the heated situation within the CCP can be inferred from the analysis of the expert on the history of the Communist Party, Gao Wenqian.

For Gao, “Xi’s greatest opponent is himself, who has neither available talent nor credible people around him, and is a Wu Dalang (main protagonist of a classic Chinese novel) running a store where the high and mighty are exempt.”

He added, “Whether they are ordinary people or senior Party officials, they will disagree and be his opponents.”

He further recalled, “The intra-party struggle within the Communist Party was a fight to the death during the Mao era, but not during the Deng, Jiang, and Hu eras, when the so-called torture did not reach the Standing Committee.”

Gao mentions, “The devil hides in the details.” He followed this with, “Xi will be on guard, but no one can guarantee that a hundred accidents will not happen.”

Nor can one ignore the long wait for freedom that animates most Chinese. 

All this makes it possible to forecast the emergence of a drastic turning point, which could even bring about the demise of the CCP, at least as it is now. 

Therefore, the key question that Sangari addressed to Zeng initially is understandable: Will China fall into chaos if the CCP collapses? To this, she replied, definitely not.

Likewise, Zeng is confident in the ability of her countrymen to take charge of their great nation, in the absence of the CCP, so she stated, “On the other hand, I believe Chinese people are smart and rational enough to decide their own future in a peaceful way once the CCP is gone.”

And she recalls, “Chinese people once established the first democratic republic in Asia, the Republic of China, and Taiwan’s great success in practicing democracy is strong proof that the Chinese can also practice democracy, and they can do it very well and successfully.”

Zeng also reiterates the thesis that prevails throughout her dissertation, published in a video on YouTube on October 4: “And the only obstacle is the CCP.”

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