President Trump said he was in favor of joining the “big currency manipulation game,” which he said, is being played by China and the European Union.
“China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system to compete with USA,” the president wrote on Wednesday, July 3, in his Twitter account.
In that framework, Trump added that the United States must match their efforts or else “remain puppets” who observe how other countries manipulate currencies.
It should be noted that Trump’s tweet calling for a depreciation of the dollar followed another that celebrated that the S&P 500 (one of the most representative indicators of the U.S. market) reached a new record, rising 19% in the year.
Also, President Trump’s statements about the dollar come after the European Central Bank (ECB) last month said it would push stimulus policies, which caused the euro to fall against the dollar (and thus its products became more competitive against the Americans).
On June 18, President Trump had said that by raising rates, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left U.S. exporters at a competitive disadvantage. Days later he said he would prefer ECB President Mario Draghi to head the Fed.
Trump’s statement also comes less than two weeks after the Bank of America (BofA) pointed out that direct intervention to weaken the dollar is possible in some ways: some directly involving the White House (regulations, for example), and others related to the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (direct Fed intervention in the New York market).
Regardless of what the Trump administration decides, it seems increasingly clear that the dollar is not sustainably overvalued compared to its long-term real effective exchange rate value. In fact, BofA’s recent analysis estimated that the dollar is 13% above its long-term average.
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